Jim made a comment in my post The Civil War may have just started – Update.
The more talk there is on BOTH sides of a civil war in the US the more likely it is that there will be major unpleasantness (IMHO). Yes we as a country have some major differences of opinion on many important issues but our issues are not so major that justifies major civil disturbance (riots) or the possible nightmare of a civil war, one in which both sides would suffer far more horrendously than any thing that is currently going on.
Yes, I am aware or “Rule .308” and looking at such a terrible possibility from a wargaming point of view I would far rather be on our side than theirs in terms of possible outcome.
But the cost to both sides would be so high,no matter who wins that it would not be worth it given the current situation or anything in the near term future.
If, I repeat if, such a terrible thing should become justified (which I hope it never does) there will be enough causes that are indisputable and attributable that there will be no doubt that it is justified. But until then (again IMHO) talk about such a thing is not a good idea and could easily lead to a viscous cycle where both sides escalate due to the verbiage instead of actions.
Such talk also makes our side look very bad from those in the middle and would tend to drive many reasonable people against our side.
Please, let’s try to use the ballot box instead of the ammo box.
It’s a respectable comment, but I am going to rebut it.
Clearly, political violence is on the rise. This is not the first time we’ve seen this in America. I’m not just talking about the Civil War in the 1860’s, but union riots in the early 20th century and bombings in the late 1960’s to early 1970’s.
This however, feels different. For one, we have sitting members of Congress encouraging this type of confrontational behavior. We also have a social media feedback loop that polarizes and intensifies the political emotions.
The violence shows no sign of slowing down or stopping. So at what point does it become Civil War 2.0?
That depends on what you think Civil War 2.0 will look like.
I love military history, I read it and study it all the time and I do not believe that Civil War 2.0 will look anything like the first Civil War.
I do not foresee the Alabama Militia marching up I-95 to do battle with the 1st New York Infantry. There will be no Gettysburg or Bull Run. Americans, by and large, do not have the stomach for it.
What I expect to see is something that embraces elements of The Troubles of Northern Ireland, and Middle Eastern or South America civil wars.
Watch this video from the open carry march at Kent State.
We’ve seen similar protests or mob actions around the country from the student protests in California to Charlottesville.
The “battles” of Civil War 2.0 will look more like these protests ramped up in intensity.
A Politician will host an event, and people in opposition will attack the crowd. The attacks will quickly become lethal, with opponents bringing machetes, guns, or melee weapons with the intent of killing, not just intimidating, people.
We will also see a rise in political assassinations or attempted assassinations.
Lastly, I expect to see more bombings or mass shootings of politicians’ offices and of political gatherings.
This is how civil wars are conducted in the more stable nations of the Middle East and South America. The nations do not totally collapse, but political leaders and their supporters are killed and the goverment loses a substantial portion of the control it once had.
The Irish Independents used terrorist tactics against political targets.
A hallmark of the Sierra Leone civil war were partisans asking civilians who they would vote for and if the “wrong” answer was given, the partisans would chop off the person’s hand.
I don’t expect much hand chopping, but voter intimidation and attacks on voters is within the realm of expected possibilities.
Image a bunch of racial Leftists showing up in a swing county in a swing state to beat and maybe kill anybody that looked like a Republican and stop them from voting.
This tactic was employed in the Middle East as well.
Right now, these incidents have not been lethal, with the exception of Charlottesville. Police can still maintain control.
What happens when the intensity reaches a point where law enforcement can’t contain it and these rallies turn into pogroms at which dozens or more people die?
What happens when instead of painting “rape” on a GOP office, a staffer is raped and/or killed, or the office is shot up, bombed, or set on fire with people still inside?
Civil War 2.0 will start with people confronting a Senator in an airport than beating him. It will be an angry mob beating people who vote for the opposing party.
Then it will be the push back against this. Antifa created the alt-Right stick man. Lefties hurt Republicans in a swing area in Florida so the radical Right create some casualties at a Bernie Bro rally.
Life will go on, for the most part, but many people will be intimidated all the time, afraid to go out or be noticed less they become a target. The goverment will lose the ability to control these attacks.
It will be Bleeding Kansas all over again, asymmetric political violence.
What I can’t foresee is how it will end. Will there be a goverment crack down that removes our rights, will we dissolve as a nation, or will we live in a constant state of unstable discomfort and economic depression? I don’t know.
But what I see the references to the “Rule of 308” and other such language is really a warning.
People like us do not want to have to walk a gauntlet of radical Leftists to cast our vote for the person who will preserve our rights. Come at me with a club because I’m not wearing an !Ocasio! shirt as I go vote and I will defend myself.
I wouldn’t say the violence is one sided, but it is heavily lopsided.
History has shown us that it is the radical Left that starts it, from the Nazis to the Communists to the Socialist to the Weathermen and FALN.
What needs to be understood is that in America, there will be push back.
I’d rather not have a Civil War. I also won’t live in an America in which there is total one party Democrat rule because when Republicans try and vote they are lynched at the polls.