Reader Ziggy89 sent me this very interesting article:

In early March, Telenko saw on social media a photograph of a Russian Pantsir-S1 missile system located near the Ukrainian city of Kherson. His eyes went immediately to the system’s tires. Rather than using high-quality, more expensive tires that could support the tremendous weight of the Pantsir-S1, the Russian army had opted for cheaper, low-quality, Chinese-made tires. He also noticed they were in terrible shape because they had not been properly maintained.

In a widely read Twitter thread, Telenko identified the problems caused by the Russian army’s failure to properly maintain not only this specific Pantsir, but neglect of the entire fleet.

Defense Expert Spots Massive Issue with Russia Trucks, Indicates Entire War’s About to Change (

Any country’s military forces who is worth anything*, is closely following the Ukranian conflict to see the performance of the hardware being used and the readiness of the personnel involved in the action. And it is not a simple issue of taking sides in the name of God, Justice and Flying White Unicorned Doves but just the serious business of war: What would happen if we have to face this fuckers in the battlefield? Does my gear hold up against their gear? What are their strengths and weaknesses?  How much do I need to spend to take out one (tank/chopper/APC/SAM site/etc.)?

Just about now and by the way the Soviets Russians are being held by a numerically inferior force, China should be licking its chops about its chances of maybe taking a bite or two of the Siberian resources.  And the supply chain to the East border is a long and nasty one compared to sending more stuff to Next Room Ukraine. A conventional war may not go nicely for Putin and the Soviet Russian Military because even if the Chinese stuff is about the same quality as the Moscow crap, they probably have 20 or 30 times more and China really does not give a crap about sacrificing hundreds of thousands of soldiers in the battlefield and subsequent evacuation.

Anyway, that is my very uninformed and non-expert opinion.

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By Miguel.GFZ

Semi-retired like Vito Corleone before the heart attack. Consiglieri to J.Kb and AWA. I lived in a Gun Control Paradise: It sucked and got people killed. I do believe that Freedom scares the political elites.

22 thoughts on “The possible winner of the Ukranian War is…”
  1. People in the west have private property rights, and therefore learn to take care of their stuff. In a totalitarian society, where no one owns anything, maintenance is always someone else’s problem. Hence, the commies use AK47s that require little maintenance due to wide tolerances, but as a result are not as accurate. The western rifles, like the M16, are the opposite.

    This is one small part of the larger set of reasons that western societies almost always win their wars. Freedom makes all the difference. Robert D Kaplan and Victor Davis Hansen have separately written extensively about this subject.

    1. I don’t like socialism like every sane guy but your assessment is not correct.

      The design of the AK was born out of a different doctrine. It evolved out of the sub machine gun and not out of the rifle like the M16 did.

      And it’s not like the western nations were doing so hot in the the last conflicts and there were many instances were equipment failed or did not deliver the expected results. “Free” nations do not necessarily have better equipment or win wars.

    2. Actually, the Russkies use AK12s in 5.45 x 39. Accuracy standard for M4s is 4MOA; AK12 about the same. Civilian ARs can be built to tighter tolerances because they don’t have to be dragged through the mud, dirt, snow, sand, etc.
      The Chinese and the Russian governments have about the same regard for individual lives, I.e. none. See Stalingrad. Will Russian people put up with this? Some seem to, but it’s early. China has a great surplus of men, thanks to their “ one child “ policy. Being Chinese, they probably think of a war scenario as a chance to “ reduce the surplus population.” This attitude precedes the Commies; read about the Tai- Ping rebellion.
      As to other equipment standards, I confess ignorance.

      1. I don’t believe China views itself as have a “surplus population” any more, just a surplus of young, unmarried males. I’ve heard that they relaxed their one-child policy (at least for Han Chinese) to a now three-child policy and has outlawed nonmedical abortions. I’m also sure that Xi and cronies feel they can lose a million or two of their population (particularly young males) with no downside so long as they win.

        1. The fly in the ointment is that those surplus males are all only sons. Start getting large numbers of them killed,ie , start snuffing out family heritages and there’ll be hell to pay.The chinese people love their “princelings”.

          1. It’s also not 1951, or even 1971. As much as Winnie the Xi wants to be Mao, the Chinese people aren’t eager to return to the days of the Cultural Revolution. They have become accustom to the Decadence of the Western Imperialist Running Dog Capitalist system.
            The young princlings aren’t exactly going to want to be cannon fodder for human wave attacks.

            1. The princlings (young or otherwise) will be the ones ordering human wave attacks, not participating in them. That’s what peasants are for.

  2. The notion of an Operation Barbarossa style falling about between thieves — China and Russia — very much appeals to me. If China tries to sate its thirst for conquest that way rather than by attempting to conquer Taiwan, that would be a much better outcome.

  3. Has Russia done anything even half way successfully in the Russo-Ukraine War so far?
    Were their Intelligence Estimates so far off that they actually thought Ukraine was going to “Welcome them as Liberators?” They are as delusional as our own CIA, DIA, and “Intelligence Community.”
    They have not even achieved Air Superiority, and it has been almost a MONTH.
    Have they achieved any of their Day #3 objectives?
    Who in the Russian Command thought that that 3 mile traffic jam was going to be improved by sending even more trucks, armored vehicles, troops and supplies down the same d@mned roads? How is a 40 mile traffic jam better?
    Why are the Russian “Masters of Electronic Warfare” using commercial radios and cell phones for their communications.
    Why are they scraping up troops from every client state if their own troops are so great? Chechnya, Ossetia, Syria, and now Libya are sending troops. Donetsk is conscripting every male from 18 to 55 for their Russian supporting forces. It looks like Putin is going to fight Ukraine to the last Pro-Russian Ukrainian? And he is turning those “Independent Republics” into a devastated war zone too.

    1. The bigger question is why the armchair generals in the Pentagon thought that Russia would win the war in 3 days. And these are the same REMFs who claim they know better than the Ukrainians in the battle what Ukraine needs to defend itself.

      1. Pkoning,

        Our Pentagon was probably listening to the same Russian sources that were telling Putin it would be a 3 day war. They, like Putin remember the Ukraine Army performance from 2014, while forgetting the 8 years of war trying to remove the Russia supported rebels in Donbas.

        Truthfully? I would not have thought Ukraine stood a chance either before it started. I am shocked at the Russian incompetence.

        1. And it’s the elephant in the room:
          It’s the Russians fault, for various reasons, that things go not according to plan – not the Ukrainians success.

        2. If people who supposedly have access to high level classified intelligence are surprised at Russian incompetence, something well documented over a century of communism, and also are surprised at the fighting spirit of people defending their homeland, something well documented for many centuries, then they surely are unfit to sit in the chairs they occupy. Did they learn nothing from Viet Nam, or the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, or any number of other historic precedent?

    2. Those “independent republics” have been devastated war zones for the last eight years. You do realize it’s been an ongoing conflict, right? Putin kicked it to 8 instead of the 4 it was on, but it’s not like it was a completely peaceful region.

    3. I agree with most of your analysis except that part about air superiority. That’s pretty much entirely due to NATO EWACS planes flying juuuuuuust on the edge of NATO airspace and feeding the Ukes a direct line to their intel, allowing them to engage Russian aircraft without even needing to turn on their own RADARs (which would leave them vulnerable to anti-radiation cruise missiles). If this turns into NATO v. Russia, those EWACS will need to pull back or get shot down.

  4. As to the defense of Siberia, Russia just moved its western amphib forces from Vladivostok to, potentially, the Black Sea (as the force is now under sale and somewhere around India as we speak.

    Yep. Why attack Taiwan which will be a major pain in the ass when you can walk over Outer Mongolia and Siberia, potentially pushing all the way to the east side of the Ural mountains? After all, in the last two clashes between (Soviet) Russia and the ChiComs, the ChiComs came away with the win (barely, but they did) and that was when Soviet Russia was much more militarily prepared and larger.

    1. Beans,
      I do not understand the Russians once again? Why sail from the Pacific, through the Indian Ocean and Mediterranean when the Straits of Bosporus are closed by Turkey? Will the Suez Canal even allow transit by active combatants? Or will they be forced to sail around the Cape of Good Hope and the South Atlantic too. Closest they can get is Latakia Syria by boat. They will not be able to force the Bosporus to invade Odessa.
      It would be faster and easier to put the men and equipment on the Trans-Siberian Railway.
      Trying to force passage through the Bosporus past NATO Member Turkey? RUFKM?

  5. Hell, if Winnie the Xi plays his cards right- and Vlad the Mad keeps up his stupid course, China will end up with the deed to Russia without having to fire a shot. Russia winds up like North Korea as an isolated, backwards backwater vassal state.

    If China can keep on the middle course, they end up as the only people willing to trade with Russia… at a huge discount, but you know how the market is these days. Half price is the best we can offer you. And sorry, it’s not enough for the top of the line hardware…

  6. I think everyone was surprised at how much trouble the Russians have had with their “special military operation”. No doubt China is watching closely and maybe evaluating them as a partner and/or foe. In the east, its getting kind of lonely. China may want them as an ally until they feel like they are ready to to us on militarily. I still keep coming back to the question about what will Putin do when he’s backed into a corner. He has one of the largest nuke forces on the planet. Even if those are poorly maintained he still has quite an arsenal. I’ve been reading there are negotiations ongoing between Russia and Ukraine, probably on how to carve up Ukraine and re-draw some borders. I feel like that is his out and to de-escalate while claiming victory. Although that doesn’t square with him completely leveling these eastern cities. You think you would want something to left as spoils.

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