The data regarding the Wuhan Virus you are currently getting is corrupted. Badly.
It’s corrupted because we had to develop a test for this thing, the numbers of tests are still kind of limited, and because of that we’re only testing sick people. We’re not testing the mild cases that just drive on, and we’re damned well not testing the asymptomatic cases.
It’s also corrupted because — let’s face it: Anybody who trusts any information from the Chinese Government, or any socialist government for that matter, should have their Licence To Adult taken away.
When even LawDog is saying to chill the hell out. Go read him.
The man has a very valid point.
Just my thoughts. IANAD warning.
The scare mongers will cite a 3% fatality rate, etc… and they are getting that from number of dead compared to number of confirmed infected.
However, some very reliable estimates place the number infected at something like eight un-diagnosed for every one confirmed. In the US that means the number infected is more like 477,000, not the 53,000 the CDC is reporting.
Given that the number dead (658 last i checked) is a solid number, that makes the fatality rate 0.138%. Compared to the seasonal flu (fatality rate of around 0.9%) I would say panic might not exactly be warranted. Even if the estimated number infected is half that, the death rate skyrockets to a measly 0.27%. Still way below that of the average flu.
And, let’s talk about the number of people infected. If there are 100 people infected for every person tested and confirmed that is only 5.3 Million people. An infection rate of about 1.6% of the population. Put 100 people in a room, statistically one of them is infected. And, remember, that 100 number is ridiculously inflated. I pulled it out of the air to illustrate exactly how small a percentage of the population is infected.
However, there are a few major differences between this disease and the seasonal flu. Contagious time before showing symptoms is longer, about seven days compared to the seasonal flu’s one, maybe two days. The time to recover if you get full blown symptoms is longer as well.
Should a company insist on holding a conference or training event? Putting 30 or 300 people into close proximity with each other for days on end? Probably best to push that off. There is an economic cost of having dozens/hundreds of people call in sick for a week.
On the other hand, is closing restaurants going to really prevent the elderly and sick from catching it? Should we take precautions at a municipal or state level to slow the spread? Well…. I do not know. I am opposed, but why be stupid? The long contagious period before showing symptoms is allowing this to spread a lot more than the average flu. Might not be a bad idea to cancel a few events.
Sorry for the long post. Been thinking about this a lot lately.
You have 100 tests.
You test 100 people you already strongly suspect are infected. 25 of them test positive.
Next week, you have 200 tests. 30 test positive. Story: Infections more than doubled on a week.
Now you have 10,000 tests and can test people who might be infected but you’re not sure.
1000 test positive. Story: Number of Cases Explodes!
But all those people have been infect for weeks, you just didn’t know it because you didn’t have tests. Now you do, you know the real number, and…. Well people are generally really bad at math
My opinion remains: We are all going to get this thing. It seems to be highly contagious, it has the ability to survive outside of the body for an extended period of time. There are thousands of people actively attempting to contract the virus and spread it to others.
My goal is to remain healthy enough that IF I or a member of my family needs medical attention, there are beds and equipment available to serve our needs.
And as every thinking person (not journalists) know, if you are surveying a selected sample, your results are going to be biased.
1,000,000 people, 10% are infected. 10,000 people are infected.
10% show symptoms, 1000 people showing symptoms.
10% are tested, 100 people tested.
75% test positive. 75 people have tested positive for Covid-19.
2 people die. 2.6% morbidity rate OF THOSE THAT TESTED POSITIVE.
The actual morbidity rate is more like 0.02%
Right now we are hearing more and more reports of people testing positive for covid-19 which are not symptomatic. Once we have good base lines, it would not surprise me to learn that the morbidity rate is lower than the seasonal flu.
The real issue is that the number of cases spiking and overwhelming the hospitals.