So this has popped up over and over again. There is another study from KFF saying that 1 in 5 (19%) of people say that a family member was killed by a gun. These number are scary scary numbers. Has something happened?

Well I started digging through the CDC and NEJM letter and numbers and it is just to much work for me right now. I’ve got paying clients that need that time. Instead I’ll give you a YouTube video that covers much of what I was planning on saying:

The current population of the United States is around 331,900,000. If 19% of those people have had a family member killed by a gun that means 63,061,000 people have had somebody in their family killed by a gun. Given that there are around 45,000 gun related deaths per year, this number seems a little high.

The average family size in the US is currently around 3.1. That doesn’t really help. Looking at household size by city shows that doesn’t make a real difference either. It looks like race doesn’t really make that much difference either.

So let’s extend that from immediate family to extended family. We move to two generates, that gives us 4 + 3 + 3 or 10. If we go to three generations that takes use to 10 + 3 + 3 + 3 + 3 = 22. So we will use 22 as our base number for extended family.

That gives us 15,086,363 extended families in the US. If 19% of those families had a gun related death that would mean that
2,866,408 families had a gun related death in that family.

Again 45,000 deaths per year. It would take 63+ years to reach that number of deaths.

Given what they asked and how they asked it, my guess is that they are polling urban black neighborhoods at a rate that is over represented. In urban black centers there are often 100% rates of families having had somebody in their family shot.

The poll looks to be legit but the numbers they give just do not pass the sniff test.