And if you have not heard anything else about this on the news, do not fret, everybody is on stand-by after the referendum and alleged triumph of the yes vote.
I am going to forego the legality (or lack ) of the referendum itself. Let’s say that it is iffy at best according to the laws of Spain and even Cataluña itself. I do want to just add my two cents on why suddenly the fervor died and we are not hearing a firm and final declaration of independence from the President of Catalonia.
The short of it: Pro-Catalexit politicians did not think it through and bet of stuff that did not happen.
Here is the thing: Catalonia’s strength is banking and investment. Sure, they have some industry, but nothing compared to its neighbors to the west Basques and Galicians. The day after the referendum was done, all the major banks in Catalonia moved their HQs to other parts of Spain and took their capitals with them. You see, once Cataluña becomes a country, they do not have the banking protection of the EU, nor a currency as they would not be allowed to use the Euro because simply they are not members of the EU and becoming members would take too long and that is if Spain does not do what it can to sabotage the application.
So basically we have a brand new country that does not have money or a financial backing or even a currency to pay for its needs or has ambassadors or negotiators or spoken with anybody to help them out during the transition. Its citizens no longer belong to the EU nor enjoy its benefits, have no passports (they would lose Spanish Citizenship) and basically cannot travel outside their little land anywhere.
And let us not forget that half of the Catalonians never wanted to split from Spain. If anything, you have a country that may end up in civil war when the shelves become bare and there is no fuel to move cars or heat up their homes in the upcoming winter.
My guess is that the local politicos never gave the consequences too much of a thought or they figured Spain’s central government would not play hard ball and extend all kinds of protections and social security till they got on their feet while the banks and clientele would remain faithful and remain doing business with them.
Oopsie?
Then again, there’s hardly ever been a 30 year period without border changes or countries appearing/disappearing in the history of Europe, so it’s not all that odd that something like this would happen. I suspect the Catalan politicians weren’t expecting such a Franco-like response from the central government.
While the fragmentation of the fake country of Yugoslavia was messy in some parts (though not in others), there have been other recent changes that were entirely peaceful. Consider the split of Czechoslovakia for example. Or, early in the 20th century, the independence of Norway.