I woke up late this morning and made a beeline for the computer to see what was going on.  My heart jumped a wee bit between checking that it now had sustained winds of 145 mph (also known as Cat 5, AKA “Eff your Hurricane code, it is coming down) and that it may not be landing near me. In fact, it may not do it at all.

This is a scary bastard

I have delayed the installation of the hurricane panels for 24 hours to see if this sucker actually moves north enough for my paranoia.  Till then, I’ll let the missus continue with the praying.


Some models are now saying winds dropping to Cat 4 and then Cat 3. Fingers crossed or the Bahamas will get badly remodeled.

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By Miguel.GFZ

Semi-retired like Vito Corleone before the heart attack. Consiglieri to J.Kb and AWA. I lived in a Gun Control Paradise: It sucked and got people killed. I do believe that Freedom scares the political elites.

5 thoughts on “Dorian: Very Cautiously Optimistic.”
  1. I’m up in Nashville. Yesterday I was at a relative’s house and he said something like “the news said its going to be a category 5 when it hits Miami.”
    I calmly responded that the news media had predicted 73 of the two Category 5 landfalls in America in the last 40 years.
    It took him a second to grok that.
    Not saying not to worry about the storm, but 4 days is a loooong time in weather forecasting.

    1. If there was a threat for a Cat 5 to hit Miami, we would have been eating flapjacks at the Pancake Pantry earlier today 🙂
      (And even sneak a shot of bourbon in Belmont )

  2. Wow, it looks like it is making a right hand turn. Maybe Florida will be spared the worst?

    Maybe Dorian heard the story and is afraid President Donald Trump will nuke it? /s

  3. They can’t even predict where a hurricane will be 4 days from now with any sort of accuracy, yet we are expected to believe that they can accurately predict a 0.5 degree C temperature increase over the next century. What is the cone of uncertainty for THAT?

    As far as the NHC, they forecast that Dorian would hit Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, after which it would hit Florida as a tropical storm. Three days later, they missed by over 200 miles when the storm hit the Virgin Islands.

    Then they changed the forecast to say that it would hit near Cape Canaveral as a Cat2 hurricane. Two days later, they changed the forecast to Fort Pierce as a Cat3. Now they are saying it will hit the Carolinas. I expect that soon, it will turn and not hit anything.

    We would be better off shutting down the NHC and calling the psychic hotline. We could save millions, and the accuracy rate would be similar.

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