We estimate that there were 2.1 million excess firearm purchases from March through May 2020–a 64.3% increase over expected volume, and an increase of 644.4 excess purchases per 100,000 population. We estimate a relative rate of death and injury from firearm violence of 1.015 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.005 to 1.025) for every 100 excess purchases per 100,000, in models that incorporate variation in purchasing across states and control for effects of the pandemic common to all states. This reflects an increase of 776 fatal and nonfatal injuries (95% CI: 216 to 1,335) over the number expected had no increase in purchasing occurred.
This is more Gnomes Underpants theorems: More gun were bought + violence increased = More Guns, More violence.
But, unless they manage somewhere to link specific guns purchased during this time period to crimes occurred in the same span, their study is just academic masturbation of the second degree.
Yes dear academics, you must hope that a firearm is recovered from the scene of the crime, traced to the buyer and hope he/she was the culprit or that the newly purchased firearm was lost or stolen and ended up in the hands of the killer. Now, let’s say police agencies out of the goodness of their harts allow you to get all that missing info, you will discover a new factor that may screw your gleaming study: Time To Crime. From the Brady Bunch website:
“Time-to-crime” is the amount of time between the retail sale of a firearm by a federal firearms licensee (FFL) and its recovery by law enforcement.
You see that? It is very important to your study because you claim the the guns sold had a direct and immediate effect on the raise in violent crime, right.
Except reality is so different. One example is the Sunshine State:
If you were to recover a firearm from a crime scene in Florida, the average date when that gun was bought was eight and a half years ago. Did you take that into account in your study? Of course not. What you suddenly have is a miniscule amount of guns bought during this virus period may appear in a crime scene in an average of 8 years.
One last question: Does your study include the BLM riots, #CHAZ, etc?
Your “conclusion” of gun sales are instant Gun Violence is absurd and it has been absurd for decades. And in the era of Google, with the same old data and studies available, one has to wonder why is this being rehashed and who is footing the bill to perpetuate this load of statistical manure.
Hat Tip Roger G.
I have some expertise in this area, and you’re right but don’t go far enough. It’s just as likely that violence causes gun purchases. More likely in my opinion.
Liars figure….
2.1 million EXCESS gun purchases. Ok sparky what an acceptable number of gun purchases? I bet originally it was written “in excess” of 2.1 mil
Look at the last name on the list. That says everything you need to know about the ‘study’
OK, if it starts off with the premise of “excess” guns, it is a fail right out of the gate. The premise assumes there is some number of guns that is correct, and any over and above that is more than you need.
An increase of these faux “studies” is a good indicator that the antis are browning their elite underpants both in anger and fear that they are losing control of the unwashed masses.
I will actually given them a pass for the “excess” language, as it’s often used to refer to “more than the usual, average or expected amount” in economics studies, for instance.
That said, it will absolutely read like a pejorative to most people who aren’t economists or statisticians.
They are getting out ahead of this.
Gun sales soared. So did violent crime.
Violent crime soared because of lax policing and civil unrest.
That drove gun sales.
They will try to turn it around and blame lawful gun sales for the spike in shootings, not the blue flu and COVID layoffs.
Don’t forget all those people paroled from prison so they wouldn’t get COVID in prison. Given the opportunity to turn their lives around I’m sure that all these immediately became law abiding citizens.
So gun violence has a very long incubation period? It takes years for the Evil Gun Rays to overcome people’s innate goodness? But I thought people were inherently evil, and anyone touching a gun would instantly have an irresistible urge to go forth and slaughter!
… Seems like the usual sort of “study” that starts with a conclusion and reverses causality to support it.
(Relatedly, I think I saw essentially the same headline from multiple “news” outlets the past couple of days: Coronavirus cases surge amid holiday festivities! Like there’s some connection between festivities held today and infections diagnosed yesterday.)
I don’t read such scientific drivel. Wintermute is a whore. Their bias is evident.
What I want to know is did they bother to look at the lives SAVED by these firearms? I guarantee you it is higher than 1.015 per 100 additional firearms purchased per 100,000.
Firearms are a giant net positive for society and so important is securing our rights. I guarantee you the BLM and pantifa hate your firearms. They restrain them. They keep them out of the suburbs where we are armed and willing to shoot.
Also remember to tell liberals that multiple gun sales to a single individual only requires ONE nics check. So we can say it was wwwwaaayyy more than 2.1mill