By Miguel.GFZ

Semi-retired like Vito Corleone before the heart attack. Consiglieri to J.Kb and AWA. I lived in a Gun Control Paradise: It sucked and got people killed. I do believe that Freedom scares the political elites.

11 thoughts on “Statistically He Is Right.”
  1. Reminds me of an old Benny Hill joke.

    The odds of a bomb being on a plane are something like 1,000,000:1.
    The odds of two bombs being on a plane are something like 1,000,000 times 1,000,000 to one.

    Reduce your odds. Bring a bomb.

    1. Made me lol, but the mathematician in me can’t help screaming “GAMBLER’S FALLACY” at the top of my lungs while dealing with a sever case of Forest Whitaker eye. I would say that is part of the joke, but first hand experience has taught me that even if it was an intentional part of the joke, 90% of people did not get it. I have sever reservations that it was intentional too. . .

        1. Are you saying the people I interact with are too dumb to be a representative sample? Because it sounds like you are saying the people I interact with are too dumb to be a representative sample.

          I am not sure what makes me feel worse, that my sample set is representative and most of humanity is incapable of understanding basic probability, or that my sample set is not representative and I run in circles filled wit idiots.

          Thank you for reminding me that there are often multiple ways to be depressed. I hate you. Now I need to go have some ice-cream, and I am blaming you for the extra calories 😉

      1. I honestly don’t see that that would apply.

        The Gambler’s Fallacy (as I understand it) is an expectation that reversion to the mean (a) must happen in all cases and (b) will happen over a relatively short sample size. (In other words, that sigma must be small and constant over any number of samples).

        This joke simply refers to the simple multiplication of probabilities, to wit that of (rate of serial killers being in a car)*(rate of serial killers who hitchhike), as I read it anyway.

        1. Plus, the number of serial killers is so small, already having one present alters the number in the rest of the population enough to change the odds.

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